Daniel Joseph2 Comments on Rumble In The Concrete Jungle
‘He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life’ – Muhammad Ali. Outside of the ring, Muhammad Ali was an activist and philosopher whose dedication to choosing the right path as opposed to that of least resistance transformed him from athlete to legend.
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If I asked a random group of 10 investors what they see as the foremost risk of property investment at this point of the cycle, I’d wager many would say ‘supply and demand.’ As always, perspective is key, and education the means of attaining that perspective. I’ll summon all my first year finance knowledge to give you a breakdown of how the supply and demand model works:
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It shouldn’t surprise you that the investment landscape has changed somewhat over the last few months: APRA’s strengthening of a bank’s capital requirements spurred lenders to increase rates on investment loans and in some cases, reduce leverage ratios. The SMSF industry too is amid change, with maximum loan to valuation ratios declining and some lenders exiting the space entirely.
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It’s a big day for finance nerds around the country; not only is it budget day, we’re also likely to see a reduction in the cash rate when the board meets at 2 PM. I’ve chosen to release this blog before the announcement largely because I’d like to proclaim myself a modern day Nostradamus if the prediction falls true.
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For the past five years, property investors, including many of you reading this now, have enjoyed almost utopian conditions such as low rates, limited competition for properties and increasing yields. Of these, yields have received the most media attention of late.
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See what I did there? Right now I’m guessing you’re thinking, ‘What does a famous Charles Dickens novel have to do with a property research blog?’ Allow me to explain. ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,’ Charles Dickens writes in the opening lines of A Tale of Two Cities as he paints a picture of life in England and France. An anecdote that applies, generally speaking, to the recent performance of Melbourne’s property market.
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It’s no coincidence that Blue Wealth’s focus is primarily on off the plan investment. There are a number of advantages of taking the ‘lay by’ approach to property investment. Here are a few:
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Hindsight is 20/20. For investors, it can also be very costly. I just listened to a Ted Talk by Tim Urban of ‘Wait But Why’ fame in which he provides an insightful and comical exposé into the mind of, as he termed it, a ‘master procrastinator’.
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If there’s one thing I can say with certainty about property investment it’s that it must be viewed as a long term hold strategy. No, I don’t mean the Gen Y version of long term that invariably is no longer than the length of a high school relationship, I’m talking ten years at the bare minimum.
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My professional career has been characterised by a four year Sydney property market growth phase, a period that, generally speaking, now appears to be nearing its end. I for one am excited by the prospects a change in market conditions brings! The situation we now confront is one of an unsustainable affordability gap between our capital cities. The figure below tracks the change in the proportion of income an average household spends on its mortgage payments over the last twenty years.
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